Bitcoin has neither broken out nor down, but the status quo still includes the risk of a trip to BTC price “bearadise.“
Bitcoin BTC $25,929 stayed below $26,000 into the Sep. 3 weekly close as analysis brushed off overly bearish trader sentiment.
BTC price weekly close puts $25,900 in focus
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price avoiding volatility over the weekend, operating in a tight $200 range.
An absence of direction provided a solid sense of deja vu for market participants, with similar behavior seen toward the August monthly close.
With all traces of last week’s two volatility events — involving crypto asset manager Grayscale and United States regulators — erased from the charts, traders weighed the impact of various potential weekly close levels.
“In terms of market structure, yet to see a candle body close below June HL or $25.9K,” popular trader Skew wrote in part of an X (formerly Twitter) thread.
Skew referenced a higher low (HL) below $25,000, with $25,900 as the key line in the sand to reclaim this week.
“This is important because if 1W close is below and price trades this area as resistance early into next week, That would imply a move lower towards previous 1W resistance ~ $24.3K,” he added.
Looking further ahead, a “bearish scenario” could put sub-$20,000 levels back in play. A bullish revival, involving a reclaim of $26,000 and continuation for a Q4 higher low, was “less likely,” Skew predicted.
Bitcoin “bearadise” threat remains
Summarizing last week’s events, Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, cautioned over categorical pronouncements on how bullish or bearish Bitcoin really is.
Volatility up and down, respectively, had come from Grayscale’s legal victory over the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), followed by the latter’s delaying a decision on the first U.S. Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Under the hood, however, Bitcoin market structure has not undergone any fundamental overhaul, Alan argued.
“On the the first day of the September Monthly candle volatility continues as traders who seem to have forgotten ‘the trend is your friend’ are clinging on to hopium and fighting over BS narratives that fit their bias,” he wrote in part of an X post on Sep. 2.
“The reality is NOTHING HAS CHANGED, because neither a breakout nor a breakdown has been technically confirmed or invalidated.”
Repeating an existing theory, Alan continued that $24,750 was the support zone to watch, with Bitcoin “bearadise” at risk of entering should it fail.
An accompanying chart showed the BTC/USD order book on Binance, with buy liquidity increasing immediately below spot price at the $24,750 zone of interest.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.